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Sidi Kacem vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
FT
3 – 1
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
10/9/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 30Terrain Municipal Mechra Bel Ksiri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sidi Kacem38%
×Draw30%
Kawkab Marrakech32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidi Kacem
1.11
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

Sidi Kacem creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Sidi Kacem
1.23
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

allows per match

Sidi Kacem
1.20
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

finishing

Sidi Kacem+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidi Kacem ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sidi Kacem or draw
68%
Sidi Kacem or Kawkab Marrakech
70%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
62%

Winning margin

Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
16%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
67%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
30%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
10%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
63%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
26%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
54%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidi Kacem at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidi Kacem attack 1.23 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sidi Kacem scores more
38%
level
30%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
32%

Sidi Kacem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sidi Kacem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sidi Kacem vs Kawkab Marrakech

Sidi Kacem beat Kawkab Marrakech 3-1 in Botola 2 on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain Municipal Mechra Bel Ksiri in Mechra Bel Ksiri.