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Kawkab Marrakech vs Sidi Kacem — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
3 – 0
Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
1/4/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 15Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech47%
×Draw28%
Sidi Kacem25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.37
Sidi Kacem
0.91

Kawkab Marrakech creates 51% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
Sidi Kacem
0.87

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
Sidi Kacem
1.33

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Sidi Kacem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
75%
Kawkab Marrakech or Sidi Kacem
72%
Draw or Sidi Kacem
53%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
23%
Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
75%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
40%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
16%
Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
60%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
23%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
66%
Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
47%
level
28%
Sidi Kacem scores more
25%

Kawkab Marrakech at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Sidi Kacem

Kawkab Marrakech beat Sidi Kacem 3-0 in Botola 2 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.