Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sidi Kacem vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola 2 2025

Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
FT
1 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
2/2/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 17Terrain Municipal Mechra Bel Ksiri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sidi Kacem49%
×Draw28%
Chabab RIF Hoceima23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidi Kacem
1.35
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.83

Sidi Kacem creates 63% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sidi Kacem
1.23
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.47

allows per match

Sidi Kacem
1.20
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47

finishing

Sidi Kacem+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidi Kacem ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sidi Kacem or draw
77%
Sidi Kacem or Chabab RIF Hoceima
72%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
51%

Winning margin

Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
23%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
74%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
39%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
15%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
56%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
20%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
68%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidi Kacem at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidi Kacem attack 1.23 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sidi Kacem scores more
49%
level
28%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
23%

Sidi Kacem at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sidi Kacem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sidi Kacem vs Chabab RIF Hoceima

Sidi Kacem and Chabab RIF Hoceima drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Terrain Municipal Mechra Bel Ksiri in Mechra Bel Ksiri.