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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Sidi Kacem — Botola 2 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
1 – 0
Sidi Kacem
Sidi Kacem
9/22/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 2Stade Mimoun Al Arsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima41%
×Draw28%
Sidi Kacem31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.23
Sidi Kacem
1.03

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.13
Sidi Kacem
0.87

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.20
Sidi Kacem
1.33

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Sidi Kacem+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Sidi Kacem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
69%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Sidi Kacem
72%
Draw or Sidi Kacem
59%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
18%
Sidi Kacem wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
71%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
35%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
13%
Sidi Kacem 1+ goals
64%
Sidi Kacem 2+ goals
28%
Sidi Kacem 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
57%
Sidi Kacem (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Sidi Kacem away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.13 + Sidi Kacem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sidi Kacem attack 0.87 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
41%
level
28%
Sidi Kacem scores more
31%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Sidi Kacem

Chabab RIF Hoceima beat Sidi Kacem 1-0 in Botola 2 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi in Al Hoceima.