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Sidama Bunna vs Fasil Ketema — Premier League 2019

Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fasil Ketema
Fasil Ketema
11/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Sidama Bunna34%
×Draw30%
Fasil Ketema36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidama Bunna
1.01
Fasil Ketema
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

creates per match

Sidama Bunna
1.13
Fasil Ketema
1.08

allows per match

Sidama Bunna
1.02
Fasil Ketema
0.89

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par
Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Fasil Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw
64%
Sidama Bunna or Fasil Ketema
70%
Draw or Fasil Ketema
66%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
13%
Fasil Ketema wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
64%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
27%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
8%
Fasil Ketema 1+ goals
65%
Fasil Ketema 2+ goals
28%
Fasil Ketema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
49%
Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Fasil Ketema away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Fasil Ketema attack 1.08 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more
34%
level
30%
Fasil Ketema scores more
36%

Fasil Ketema at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sidama Bunna 0–1 Fasil Ketema

Fasil Ketema beat Sidama Bunna 1-0 in Premier League on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.