Fasil Ketema 1–0 Sidama Bunna: Result & Stats

Fasil Ketema

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sidama Bunna

10/29/2025

Premier League · Round 3Fasiledes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Fasil Ketema41%

×Draw29%

Sidama Bunna30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fasil KetemaExpected goals in this matchSidama Bunna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.98

Fasil Ketema

1.20

Sidama Bunna

0.98

Fasil Ketema creates 22% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 102 away

1.28

creates per match

1.19

0.78

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Fasil Ketema

1.28

Sidama Bunna

1.19

allows per match

Fasil Ketema

0.78

Sidama Bunna

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fasil Ketema+0.00on par

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fasil Ketema ↓

Sidama Bunna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fasil Ketema or draw

70%

Fasil Ketema or Sidama Bunna

71%

Draw or Sidama Bunna

59%

Winning margin

Fasil Ketema wins by 2+

18%

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fasil Ketema 1+ goals

70%

Fasil Ketema 2+ goals

34%

Fasil Ketema 3+ goals

12%

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals

62%

Sidama Bunna 2+ goals

26%

Sidama Bunna 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fasil Ketema (draw refunded)

58%

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fasil Ketema at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.78 · 101 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fasil Ketema attack 1.28 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Fasil Ketema defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fasil Ketema scores more

41%

level

29%

Sidama Bunna scores more

30%

Fasil Ketema at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fasil Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff