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Sichuan Longfor vs Meizhou Kejia — League One 2018

Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
4/6/2019League OneLeague One · Round 4Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor36%
×Draw26%
Meizhou Kejia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Longfor
1.35
Meizhou Kejia
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Meizhou Kejia
1.49

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
Meizhou Kejia
1.38

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw
61%
Sichuan Longfor or Meizhou Kejia
74%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
64%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
16%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
74%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
39%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
15%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
76%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
41%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
48%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.49 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more
36%
level
26%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
39%

Meizhou Kejia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Sichuan Longfor 2–1 Meizhou Kejia

Sichuan Longfor beat Meizhou Kejia 2-1 in League One on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.