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Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Longfor — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
7/27/2019League OneLeague One · Round 19Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Meizhou Kejia56%
×Draw22%
Sichuan Longfor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.96
Sichuan Longfor
1.16

Meizhou Kejia creates 69% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.80
Sichuan Longfor
1.07

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.25
Sichuan Longfor
2.13

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Sichuan Longfor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
78%
Meizhou Kejia or Sichuan Longfor
78%
Draw or Sichuan Longfor
44%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
33%
Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
86%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
58%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
31%
Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
69%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
32%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
71%
Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Sichuan Longfor away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.80 + Sichuan Longfor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.07 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
56%
level
22%
Sichuan Longfor scores more
22%

Meizhou Kejia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Longfor

Meizhou Kejia and Sichuan Longfor drew 0-0 in League One on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.