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Sichuan Longfor vs liaoning hongyun FC — League One 2018

Sichuan Longfor
Sichuan Longfor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
liaoning hongyun FC
liaoning hongyun FC
8/18/2019League OneLeague One · Round 22Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Longfor46%
×Draw25%
liaoning hongyun FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Longfor
1.60
liaoning hongyun FC
1.22

Sichuan Longfor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
liaoning hongyun FC
1.10

allows per match

Sichuan Longfor
1.33
liaoning hongyun FC
1.87

finishing

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par
liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Longfor ↓

liaoning hongyun FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sichuan Longfor or draw
71%
Sichuan Longfor or liaoning hongyun FC
75%
Draw or liaoning hongyun FC
54%

Winning margin

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+
24%
liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals
80%
Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals
47%
Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals
22%
liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals
70%
liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals
34%
liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)
61%
liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Longfor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

liaoning hongyun FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.33 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.10 + Sichuan Longfor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sichuan Longfor scores more
46%
level
25%
liaoning hongyun FC scores more
29%

Sichuan Longfor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sichuan Longfor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Sichuan Longfor 3–2 liaoning hongyun FC

Sichuan Longfor beat liaoning hongyun FC 3-2 in League One on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Dujiangyan Phoenix Stadium in Dujiangyan.