liaoning hongyun FC 0–2 Sichuan Longfor

liaoning hongyun FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sichuan Longfor

4/27/2019

League One · Round 7Tiexi New District Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

liaoning hongyun FC46%

×Draw24%

Sichuan Longfor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

liaoning hongyun FCExpected goals in this matchSichuan Longfor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.29

liaoning hongyun FC

1.65

Sichuan Longfor

1.29

liaoning hongyun FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.17

creates per match

1.07

1.50

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.17

Sichuan Longfor

1.07

allows per match

liaoning hongyun FC

1.50

Sichuan Longfor

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

liaoning hongyun FC+0.00on par

Sichuan Longfor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

liaoning hongyun FC ↓

Sichuan Longfor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

liaoning hongyun FC or draw

70%

liaoning hongyun FC or Sichuan Longfor

76%

Draw or Sichuan Longfor

54%

Winning margin

liaoning hongyun FC wins by 2+

24%

Sichuan Longfor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

liaoning hongyun FC 1+ goals

81%

liaoning hongyun FC 2+ goals

49%

liaoning hongyun FC 3+ goals

23%

Sichuan Longfor 1+ goals

72%

Sichuan Longfor 2+ goals

37%

Sichuan Longfor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

liaoning hongyun FC (draw refunded)

60%

Sichuan Longfor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

liaoning hongyun FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Sichuan Longfor away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

liaoning hongyun FC attack 1.17 + Sichuan Longfor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sichuan Longfor attack 1.07 + liaoning hongyun FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

liaoning hongyun FC scores more

46%

level

24%

Sichuan Longfor scores more

30%

liaoning hongyun FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "liaoning hongyun FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff