Sichuan Jiuniu 1–4 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Shandong Luneng

Behram Abduweli 69'

Chen Pu 90+6'

Pedro Delgado 90+2', 77' (pen)

Maiwulang Mijiti 54'

9/28/2024

Super League · Round 27Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu33%

×Draw23%

Shandong Luneng44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.75

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.49

Shandong Luneng

1.75

Shandong Luneng creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

1.33

creates per match

1.77

1.73

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.33

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.73

Shandong Luneng

1.65

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.21scores more

Shandong Luneng-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

56%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Shandong Luneng

77%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

67%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

15%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

77%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

44%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

19%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

83%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

52%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

43%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 24 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.65 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.33 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

33%

level

23%

Shandong Luneng scores more

44%

Shandong Luneng at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Pedro Delgado

Shandong Luneng · F

9.0

Match Events

43'

V. Qazaishvili← He Xiaoke

43'

Gao Zhunyi← Marcel Scalese

46'

Bi Jinhao← Wu Xinghan

54'

Maiwulang Mijiti

55'

Eden Karzev

56'

Liao Lisheng← Peng Xinli

63'

Ke Shi

64'

Behram Abduweli← Hu Ruibao

69'

Behram Abduweli↳ Zhang Wei

76'

Lin Chuangyi← E. Kartsev

77'

Pedro DelgadoPenalty

80'

Zeca← Maiwulang Mijiti

83'

Ruan Yang← Edu García

83'

Zhou Dadi← Dai Wai-Tsun

88'

Lisheng Liao

90+2'

Pedro Delgado↳ Chen Pu

90+6'

Chen Pu↳ Pedro Delgado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SichuanShandong

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots12

1.16Expected Goals (xG)2.45

6Corners5

12Fouls22

Shots

15Total Shots12

3On Target6

9Off Target3

3Blocked3

11Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

433Total Passes397

348Accurate Passes317

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls22

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2