Shandong Luneng 3–2 Sichuan Jiuniu: Result & Stats

Shandong Luneng

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sichuan Jiuniu

V. Qazaishvili 68'

Cryzan 41'

Gao Zhunyi 26'

R. Dugalić 82'

Edu García 11'

5/16/2024

Super League · Round 12Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Shandong Luneng56%

×Draw22%

Sichuan Jiuniu21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchSichuan Jiuniu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.08

Shandong Luneng

1.90

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.08

Shandong Luneng creates 76% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 21 away

1.90

creates per match

1.03

1.13

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

1.90

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.03

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

1.13

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.90

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.43scores more

Sichuan Jiuniu-0.46scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

79%

Shandong Luneng or Sichuan Jiuniu

78%

Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu

44%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

33%

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

85%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

56%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

29%

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

66%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

29%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

73%

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.13 · 27 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.90 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.03 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

56%

level

22%

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

21%

Shandong Luneng at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

V. Qazaishvili

Shandong Luneng · F

8.2

Match Events

11'

Edu García↳ Zhang Yudong

26'

Gao Zhunyi

27'

S. Armenteros← Edu García

28'

Rade Dugalić

41'

Cryzan↳ V. Qazaishvili

46'

Jia Feifan← Li Yuanyi

68'

V. Qazaishvili↳ Xie Wenneng

69'

Ruan Yang← Behram Abduweli

77'

Liu Binbin← Xie Wenneng

77'

Chen Pu← Liao Lisheng

80'

Matt Orr← Thiago Andrade

80'

Xiao Kun← Tian Yinong

80'

Lin Chuangyi← Zhang Yudong

82'

R. Dugalić↳ Matt Orr

88'

Feifan Jia

90+4'

Liu Yang← Huang Zhengyu

90+4'

Pedro Delgado← V. Qazaishvili

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShandongSichuan

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots10

0.80Expected Goals (xG)0.79

1Corners4

22Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots10

5On Target4

1Off Target3

2Blocked3

7Inside Box5

1Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

378Total Passes455

271Accurate Passes349

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

22Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0