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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2026

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
Wesley Moraes 90', 68', 13'
M. Edjouma 90' (pen)
Yang Cong 80'
5/30/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Shenzhen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu48%
×Draw23%
Qingdao Jonoon29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.80
Qingdao Jonoon
1.36

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.38
Qingdao Jonoon
1.00

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.72
Qingdao Jonoon
2.23

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.24scores more
Qingdao Jonoon-0.10scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
71%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Qingdao Jonoon
77%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
52%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
26%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
83%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
54%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
27%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
74%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
39%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
62%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 26 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.38 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.80

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.00 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
48%
level
23%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
29%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Wesley MoraesSichuan JiuniuSichuan Jiuniu · F
8.9

Match Events

-5'
Yiming Yang
13'
Wesley Moraes↳ D. Owusu-Sekyere
32'
Nemanja Anđelković
44'
Yao Junsheng← E. Kartsev
46'
Liu Junshuai← Jin Yangyang
59'
Tian Yifan
59'
Jin Yonghao
59'
Yaw Yeboah
60'
Junsheng Yao
62'
Song Wenjie← Lin Chuangyi
68'
Wesley Moraes
72'
Jiang Zhipeng← Tian Yifan
72'
Hu Ruibao← H. Shen
72'
Zhang Xiaobin← T. Chow
74'
Sun Zheng'ao← Luo Senwen
74'
Yang Cong← A. El Messaoudi
80'
Yang Cong
82'
Liu Xinyu← Jin Yonghao
90+2'
J. Yao← A. Ademi
90'
Wesley Moraes↳ Dai Wai-Tsun
90'
M. EdjoumaPenalty

Possession

47%Sichuan

Shots

16Sichuan

Pass accuracy

50%Sichuan

Statistics

SichuanQingdao
Overview
47%Possession53%
16Total Shots10
2.72Expected Goals (xG)1.13
9Corners3
16Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots10
5On Target4
8Off Target3
3Blocked3
13Inside Box4
3Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
311Total Passes356
248Accurate Passes288
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-2 in Super League on May 30, 2026.

Goals: Wesley Moraes (13', 68', 90'), Yang Cong (80'), M. Edjouma (90' pen).

Qingdao Jonoon controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Shenzhen Stadium in Shenzhen.