Sichuan Jiuniu 1–3 Qingdao Jonoon: Result & Stats

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Qingdao Jonoon

Thiago Andrade 57' (pen)

M. Boakye 23'

E. Kangwa 9' (pen)

Liu Junshuai 5'

4/26/2024

Super League · Round 8Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu48%

×Draw23%

Qingdao Jonoon29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.36

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.80

Qingdao Jonoon

1.36

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

1.72

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.38

Qingdao Jonoon

1.00

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.72

Qingdao Jonoon

2.23

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.24scores more

Qingdao Jonoon-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

71%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Qingdao Jonoon

77%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

52%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

26%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

83%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

54%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

27%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

74%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

39%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

62%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 26 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.23 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.38 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.80

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.00 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

48%

level

23%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

29%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jorge Ortíz

Sichuan Jiuniu · M

8.0

Match Events

5'

Liu Junshuai↳ E. Sarić

9'

E. KangwaPenalty

23'

M. Boakye

28'

Liu Junshuai

37'

Wei Long

45+4'

Rui YuPenalty confirmed

46'

Wang Hao← Li Zhi

46'

Nan Song← Lin Chuangyi

46'

Behram Abduweli← Nizamdin Ependi

54'

Zhong Jinbao← Chen Chunxin

56'

Jorge OrtizPenalty confirmed

56'

Matt Orr← Zhu Baojie

57'

Thiago AndradePenalty

67'

Liu Jiashen← Long Wei

68'

Elvis Sarić

76'

Rui Yu

77'

Rui YuCard reviewed

80'

Dong Xu

90'

Hu Jinghang← M. Boakye

90'

Zhang Wei← E. Kangwa

90'

Ma Xingyu← Wang Chien-Ming

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SichuanQingdao

Overview

64%Possession36%

18Total Shots9

2.15Expected Goals (xG)1.18

6Corners3

10Fouls21

Shots

18Total Shots9

5On Target4

9Off Target4

4Blocked1

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

457Total Passes268

360Accurate Passes167

79%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls21

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon

Qingdao Jonoon beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 in Super League on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Liu Junshuai (5'), E. Kangwa (9' pen), M. Boakye (23'), Thiago Andrade (57' pen).

Sichuan Jiuniu controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Shenzhen.

Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Qingdao Jonoon