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Sichuan Jiuniu vs Jinan Xingzhou — League One 2018

Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
5/13/2023League OneLeague One · Round 5Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu41%
×Draw29%
Jinan Xingzhou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.18
Jinan Xingzhou
0.95

Sichuan Jiuniu creates 24% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
1.23
Jinan Xingzhou
1.07

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu
0.82
Jinan Xingzhou
1.13

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw
71%
Sichuan Jiuniu or Jinan Xingzhou
71%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
59%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
18%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
69%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
33%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
12%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
61%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
25%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
58%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 56 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
41%
level
29%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
29%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Sichuan Jiuniu 2–1 Jinan Xingzhou

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Jinan Xingzhou 2-1 in League One on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Chengdu Longquanyi Football Stadium in Chengdu.