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Jinan Xingzhou vs Sichuan Jiuniu — League One 2018

Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Sichuan Jiuniu
8/26/2023League OneLeague One · Round 20Shandong Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou33%
×Draw30%
Sichuan Jiuniu37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinan Xingzhou
1.01
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou
1.20
Sichuan Jiuniu
1.23

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou
0.93
Sichuan Jiuniu
0.82

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par
Sichuan Jiuniu+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw
63%
Jinan Xingzhou or Sichuan Jiuniu
70%
Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu
67%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
13%
Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
64%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
27%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
8%
Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals
66%
Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals
29%
Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
47%
Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.20 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.23 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more
33%
level
30%
Sichuan Jiuniu scores more
37%

Sichuan Jiuniu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sichuan Jiuniu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jinan Xingzhou vs Sichuan Jiuniu

Sichuan Jiuniu beat Jinan Xingzhou 2-0 in League One on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Shandong Provincial Stadium in Ji'nan.