Sichuan Jiuniu 1–3 Henan Jianye: Result & Stats

Sichuan Jiuniu

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Henan Jianye

Yang Yiming 85'

Bruno Nazario 74' (pen)

Iago Maidana 59'

Lucas Maia 42'

4/5/2025

Super League · Round 5Longquanyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Sichuan Jiuniu35%

×Draw24%

Henan Jianye40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sichuan JiuniuExpected goals in this matchHenan Jianye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.56

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.45

Henan Jianye

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

1.35

creates per match

1.42

1.70

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.35

Henan Jianye

1.42

allows per match

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.70

Henan Jianye

1.54

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Sichuan Jiuniu+0.26scores more

Henan Jianye-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sichuan Jiuniu ↓

Henan Jianye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sichuan Jiuniu or draw

60%

Sichuan Jiuniu or Henan Jianye

76%

Draw or Henan Jianye

65%

Winning margin

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

17%

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

77%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

42%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

18%

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

79%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

46%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

47%

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sichuan Jiuniu at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.70 · 28 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.54 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.35 + Henan Jianye defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Henan Jianye attack 1.42 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

35%

level

24%

Henan Jianye scores more

40%

Henan Jianye at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Bruno Nazario

Henan Jianye · F

9.0

Match Events

9'

Yeljan Shinar

14'

Ruibao Hu

42'

Lucas Maia↳ Wang Shangyuan

45+2'

Xiaobing Zhang

59'

Iago Maidana↳ Bruno Nazario

61'

Manprit Sarkaria

65'

Oliver GerbigGoal cancelled

65'

M. Orr← Zhang Yudong

73'

Jiabao Ji

73'

Frank AcheampongPenalty confirmed

74'

Bruno NazarioPenalty

76'

Liu Xinyu← F. Acheampong

84'

H. Shen← Hu Ruibao

84'

Niu Ziyi← Huang Ruifeng

85'

Yang Yiming↳ Zhang Xiaobin

87'

Xiaobing ZhangGoal confirmed

90+7'

Felippe Cardoso

90+7'

Liu Yixin← Liu Bin

90+7'

He Chao← Felippe Cardoso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SichuanHenan

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots15

0.43Expected Goals (xG)3.03

6Corners5

16Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots15

2On Target7

7Off Target5

3Blocked3

5Inside Box11

7Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

434Total Passes360

351Accurate Passes287

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides5