Henan Jianye 0–2 Sichuan Jiuniu: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sichuan Jiuniu

Edu García 84' (pen), 66'

4/5/2024

Super League · Round 4Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Henan Jianye56%

×Draw22%

Sichuan Jiuniu22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchSichuan Jiuniu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.09

Henan Jianye

1.89

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.09

Henan Jianye creates 73% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.83

creates per match

0.99

1.20

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Henan Jianye

1.83

Sichuan Jiuniu

0.99

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.20

Sichuan Jiuniu

1.95

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.05on par

Sichuan Jiuniu-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Sichuan Jiuniu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

78%

Henan Jianye or Sichuan Jiuniu

78%

Draw or Sichuan Jiuniu

44%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

32%

Sichuan Jiuniu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

85%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

56%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

29%

Sichuan Jiuniu 1+ goals

66%

Sichuan Jiuniu 2+ goals

30%

Sichuan Jiuniu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

72%

Sichuan Jiuniu (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.20 · 24 matches

Sichuan Jiuniu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.95 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.83 + Sichuan Jiuniu defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.99 + Henan Jianye defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

56%

level

22%

Sichuan Jiuniu scores more

22%

Henan Jianye at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

Bruno Nazário

Henan Jianye · F

8.3

Match Events

18'

F. Acheampong← Zhong Yihao

23'

Rade Dugalić

64'

S. Armenteros← Lin Chuangyi

66'

Edu García

67'

Yang Yilin← Huang Zichang

68'

Rui Yu

83'

Xu Haofeng

83'

Edu GarciaPenalty confirmed

84'

Edu GarcíaPenalty

87'

Zhou Dadi← Nan Song

87'

Xiao Kun← Zhu Baojie

89'

Huang Ruifeng← Wang Shangyuan

89'

Feng Boyuan← Bruno Nazário

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HenanSichuan

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots14

1.06Expected Goals (xG)2.08

6Corners2

18Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots14

1On Target7

8Off Target4

5Blocked3

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

410Total Passes378

309Accurate Passes302

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1