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Sibir vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Sibir
Sibir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
9/8/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Spartak (Novosibirsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sibir31%
×Draw34%
Rotor Volgograd35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibir
0.82
Rotor Volgograd
0.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 87 away

creates per match

Sibir
0.70
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Sibir
0.70
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Sibir+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibir ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Sibir or draw
65%
Sibir or Rotor Volgograd
66%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
69%

Winning margin

Sibir wins by 2+
10%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sibir 1+ goals
56%
Sibir 2+ goals
20%
Sibir 3+ goals
5%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
59%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
22%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sibir (draw refunded)
47%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibir at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibir attack 0.70 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Sibir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sibir scores more
31%
level
34%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
35%

Rotor Volgograd at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sibir 1–1 Rotor Volgograd

Sibir and Rotor Volgograd drew 1-1 in First League on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak (Novosibirsk).