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Rotor Volgograd vs Sibir — First League 2018

Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sibir
Sibir
3/24/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Volgograd Arena (Volgograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rotor Volgograd49%
×Draw27%
Sibir24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotor Volgograd
1.39
Sibir
0.87

Rotor Volgograd creates 60% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 20 away

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd
1.22
Sibir
0.75

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd
0.99
Sibir
1.55

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par
Sibir+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Sibir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw
76%
Rotor Volgograd or Sibir
73%
Draw or Sibir
51%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
24%
Sibir wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
75%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
40%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
16%
Sibir 1+ goals
58%
Sibir 2+ goals
22%
Sibir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
68%
Sibir (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.99 · 86 matches

Sibir away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.22 + Sibir defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sibir attack 0.75 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more
49%
level
27%
Sibir scores more
24%

Rotor Volgograd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Rotor Volgograd 2–0 Sibir

Rotor Volgograd beat Sibir 2-0 in First League on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena (Volgograd).