Sibir 0–0 Mordovia Saransk: Result & Stats

Sibir

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mordovia Saransk

11/10/2018

First League · Round 21RFTs Zarya manezh (Novosibirsk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sibir43%

×Draw30%

Mordovia Saransk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibirExpected goals in this matchMordovia Saransk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.85

Sibir

1.16

Mordovia Saransk

0.85

Sibir creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

0.70

creates per match

1.00

0.70

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sibir

0.70

Mordovia Saransk

1.00

allows per match

Sibir

0.70

Mordovia Saransk

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sibir+0.00on par

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibir ↓

Mordovia Saransk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sibir or draw

73%

Sibir or Mordovia Saransk

70%

Draw or Mordovia Saransk

57%

Winning margin

Sibir wins by 2+

18%

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sibir 1+ goals

69%

Sibir 2+ goals

32%

Sibir 3+ goals

11%

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

57%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

21%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sibir (draw refunded)

62%

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibir at home — creates 0.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibir attack 0.70 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Sibir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sibir scores more

43%

level

30%

Mordovia Saransk scores more

27%

Sibir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sibir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff