Mordovia Saransk 3–0 Sibir: Result & Stats

Mordovia Saransk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sibir

F. Dvoretskov 85'

Ruslan Mukhametshin 77', 17'

8/8/2018

First League · Round 5Mordovia Arena (Saransk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mordovia Saransk40%

×Draw28%

Sibir31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mordovia SaranskExpected goals in this matchSibir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Mordovia Saransk

1.23

Sibir

1.04

Mordovia Saransk creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 19 away

0.83

creates per match

0.79

1.29

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Mordovia Saransk

0.83

Sibir

0.79

allows per match

Mordovia Saransk

1.29

Sibir

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Sibir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mordovia Saransk ↓

Sibir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mordovia Saransk or draw

69%

Mordovia Saransk or Sibir

72%

Draw or Sibir

60%

Winning margin

Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+

18%

Sibir wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals

71%

Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals

35%

Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals

13%

Sibir 1+ goals

65%

Sibir 2+ goals

28%

Sibir 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)

57%

Sibir (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mordovia Saransk at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

Sibir away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mordovia Saransk attack 0.83 + Sibir defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sibir attack 0.79 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mordovia Saransk scores more

40%

level

28%

Sibir scores more

31%

Mordovia Saransk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mordovia Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Ruslan Mukhametshin

53'

F. Dvoretskov← V. Obukhov

60'

A. Orlov← D. Poyarkov

63'

A. Korzhunov← V. Azarov

77'

Ruslan Mukhametshin

83'

V. Adaev← Rustem Mukhametshin

85'

F. Dvoretskov

87'

A. Kushniruk← A. Polyutkin

87'

V. Ryzhkov← V. Svezhov

89'

M. Markin← I. Petrov

Mordovia

Sibir

22

2

25

33

20

▼

Polyutkin

8

Makarenko

91

▼

23

10

9

19

▼

16

33

87

24

18

9

▼

Mukhamets

17

Kireev

25

▼

Poyarkov

95

▼

Petrov

23

⚽2

Mukhamets

20

▼

Obukhov

Manager: M. Mustafin

53'▲F. Dvoretskov←▼V. Obukhov

60'▲A. Orlov←▼D. Poyarkov

83'▲V. Adaev←▼Rustem Mukhametshin

89'▲M. Markin←▼I. Petrov

Mordovia Saransk substitutes

21Dvoretskov97Orlov96Adaev10Markin1Shebanov2Navletov5Derevyagin11Ermakov13Sobolev19Yusupov77Maloletkov3Strelov

Manager: S. Kirsanov

63'▲A. Korzhunov←▼V. Azarov

87'▲A. Kushniruk←▼A. Polyutkin

87'▲V. Ryzhkov←▼V. Svezhov

Sibir substitutes

77Korzhunov5Kushniruk28Ryzhkov16Kiselev17Parfinovich21Tumasyan44Larents

Match Recap: Mordovia Saransk vs Sibir

Mordovia Saransk beat Sibir 3-0 in First League on August 8, 2018.

Goals: Ruslan Mukhametshin (17', 77'), F. Dvoretskov (85').

The match was played at Mordovia Arena (Saransk).

Mordovia Saransk vs Sibir — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mordovia Saransk vs Sibir