Sibenik 2–0 NK Slaven Belupo: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

NK Slaven Belupo

J. Majić 22'

I. Santini 13'

8/9/2024

HNL · Round 2Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik44%

×Draw26%

NK Slaven Belupo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchNK Slaven Belupo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Sibenik

1.42

NK Slaven Belupo

1.10

Sibenik creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

1.11

creates per match

1.05

1.16

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

NK Slaven Belupo

1.05

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

NK Slaven Belupo

1.73

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

NK Slaven Belupo-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

71%

Sibenik or NK Slaven Belupo

74%

Draw or NK Slaven Belupo

56%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

21%

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

76%

Sibenik 2+ goals

41%

Sibenik 3+ goals

17%

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

67%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

30%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

60%

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.73 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.05 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sibenik scores more

44%

level

26%

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

29%

Sibenik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Đaković

Sibenik · G

8.3

Match Events

13'

Zvonimir Katalinić

13'

I. Santini↳ J. Majić

22'

J. Majić

46'

R. Murić← D. Martinović

46'

L. Crepulja← Z. Katalinić

61'

A. Jagušić← M. Agbekpornu

68'

C. Torres← I. Božić

69'

M. Prekodravac← J. Majić

75'

A. Šuto← M. Šakota

80'

J. Vasilj← I. Roca

88'

D. Dujmović← L. Zuta

88'

P. Marić← I. Jelić Balta

90+4'

Jakov Anton Vasilj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikNK

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots13

1.78Expected Goals (xG)0.84

3Corners7

9Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots13

5On Target6

4Off Target6

1Blocked1

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box8

Passing

36%Possession64%

246Total Passes440

162Accurate Passes361

66%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2