NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

NK Slaven Belupo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sibenik

D. Kovačić 73'

I. Lepinjica 53'

4/11/2025

HNL · Round 29Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

NK Slaven Belupo40%

×Draw27%

Sibenik33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NK Slaven BelupoExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

NK Slaven Belupo

1.33

Sibenik

1.19

NK Slaven Belupo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.41

creates per match

1.01

1.38

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.41

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

NK Slaven Belupo

1.38

Sibenik

1.25

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

NK Slaven Belupo+0.38scores more

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Slaven Belupo ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

NK Slaven Belupo or draw

67%

NK Slaven Belupo or Sibenik

73%

Draw or Sibenik

60%

Winning margin

NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+

18%

Sibenik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals

74%

NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals

38%

NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals

15%

Sibenik 1+ goals

70%

Sibenik 2+ goals

33%

Sibenik 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)

55%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Slaven Belupo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Slaven Belupo attack 1.41 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sibenik attack 1.01 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NK Slaven Belupo scores more

40%

level

27%

Sibenik scores more

33%

NK Slaven Belupo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NK Slaven Belupo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Jagušić

NK Slaven Belupo · M

7.3

Match Events

43'

Ivan Filipović

46'

I. Laća← A. Kavelj

46'

T. Kolega← E. Duraković

53'

I. Lepinjica↳ A. Grgić

60'

I. Dolček← A. Liber

65'

L. Kulušić← I. Božić

65'

J. Majić← Iker Pozo

68'

M. Agbekpornu← I. Lepinjica

73'

D. Kovačić↳ A. Jagušić

85'

M. Boras← T. Božić

85'

M. Caimacov← A. Jagušić

85'

A. Jakoliš← I. Santini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NKSibenik

Overview

65%Possession35%

9Total Shots0

2Corners2

7Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots0

3On Target0

4Off Target0

2Blocked0

6Inside Box0

3Outside Box0

Passing

65%Possession35%

264Total Passes134

234Accurate Passes92

89%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1