Sibenik 1–3 NK Osijek: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

NK Osijek

I. Santini 3'

M. Soldo 81'

L. Jelenić 61'

A. Jakupovic 45+5'

10/19/2024

HNL · Round 10Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik37%

×Draw27%

NK Osijek36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.21

Sibenik

1.24

NK Osijek

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

1.25

1.16

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

NK Osijek

1.25

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

NK Osijek

1.36

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

NK Osijek-0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

NK Osijek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

64%

Sibenik or NK Osijek

73%

Draw or NK Osijek

63%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

16%

NK Osijek wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

71%

Sibenik 2+ goals

35%

Sibenik 3+ goals

13%

NK Osijek 1+ goals

70%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

34%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

51%

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + NK Osijek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

NK Osijek attack 1.25 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sibenik scores more

37%

level

27%

NK Osijek scores more

36%

Sibenik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

M. Soldo

NK Osijek · M

8.6

Match Events

3'

9'

25'

31'

35'

44'

45+1'

45+5'

A. Jakupovic↳ M. Soldo

46'

49'

61'

64'

66'

66'

72'

81'

82'

82'

L. Kulušić← T. Kolega

88'

K. Ademi← A. Jakupovic

88'

Pedro Lima← M. Soldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikNK

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots18

1.04Expected Goals (xG)2.86

2Corners8

8Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots18

1On Target8

5Off Target10

2Blocked0

5Inside Box12

3Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

342Total Passes433

230Accurate Passes328

67%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0

Match Recap: Sibenik vs NK Osijek

NK Osijek beat Sibenik 3-1 in HNL on October 19, 2024.

Goals: I. Santini (3'), A. Jakupovic (45+5'), L. Jelenić (61'), M. Soldo (81').

NK Osijek controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.

Sibenik vs NK Osijek — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sibenik vs NK Osijek