Sibenik 1–4 NK Osijek: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

NK Osijek

A. Hiroš 72' (pen)

D. Nejašmić 80'

R. Mierez 76', 62'

M. Mina 3' (OG)

5/19/2023

HNL · Round 35Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik37%

×Draw27%

NK Osijek36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.21

Sibenik

1.24

NK Osijek

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

1.25

1.16

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

NK Osijek

1.25

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

NK Osijek

1.36

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

NK Osijek-0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

NK Osijek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

64%

Sibenik or NK Osijek

73%

Draw or NK Osijek

63%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

16%

NK Osijek wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

71%

Sibenik 2+ goals

35%

Sibenik 3+ goals

13%

NK Osijek 1+ goals

70%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

34%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

51%

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + NK Osijek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

NK Osijek attack 1.25 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sibenik scores more

37%

level

27%

NK Osijek scores more

36%

Sibenik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

R. Mierez

NK Osijek · F

9.2

Match Events

3'

M. MinaOwn goal

46'

D. Čanađija← J. Mesa

46'

K. Špeljak← J. Knežević

52'

Ivan Fiolić

59'

D. Nejašmić← M. Caktaš

62'

R. Mierez↳ M. Jurčevič

70'

Haruki AraiPenalty confirmed

72'

A. HirošPenalty

76'

R. Mierez↳ D. Bukvić

80'

D. Nejašmić↳ K. Lovrić

84'

Š. Gržan← N. Omerović

84'

M. Topčagić← R. Mierez

86'

Nikola Đorić

90+7'

Josip ŠpoljarićGoal cancelled

90'

J. Špoljarić← V. Jugović

90'

I. Cvijanović← M. Jurčevič

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikNK

Overview

56%Possession44%

4Total Shots14

3Corners2

9Fouls15

Shots

4Total Shots14

2On Target6

2Off Target4

0Blocked4

3Inside Box9

1Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

445Total Passes355

331Accurate Passes253

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

HNL: Sibenik 1–4 NK Osijek

NK Osijek beat Sibenik 4-1 in HNL on May 19, 2023.

Goals: M. Mina (3' o.g.), R. Mierez (62', 76'), A. Hiroš (72' pen), D. Nejašmić (80').

Sibenik controlled possession (56%) and registered 4 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.

Sibenik vs NK Osijek — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNL: Sibenik 1–4 NK Osijek