Sibenik 0–3 NK Osijek: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

NK Osijek

M. Topčagić 78'

A. Marin 70' (OG)

K. Lovrić 54'

3/20/2022

HNL · Round 28Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik37%

×Draw27%

NK Osijek36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.21

Sibenik

1.24

NK Osijek

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

1.11

creates per match

1.25

1.16

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

NK Osijek

1.25

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

NK Osijek

1.36

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

NK Osijek-0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

NK Osijek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

64%

Sibenik or NK Osijek

73%

Draw or NK Osijek

63%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

16%

NK Osijek wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

71%

Sibenik 2+ goals

35%

Sibenik 3+ goals

13%

NK Osijek 1+ goals

70%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

34%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

51%

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + NK Osijek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

NK Osijek attack 1.25 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sibenik scores more

37%

level

27%

NK Osijek scores more

36%

Sibenik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

95

L. Rogić

Sibenik · G

8.3

Match Events

17'

Marcos Mina

46'

D. Skorup← S. Sahiti

54'

K. Lovrić↳ M. Leovac

59'

C. Torres← N. Rak

61'

Antonio Asanović

63'

Marin Leovac

67'

I. Fiolić← L. Kleinheisler

68'

M. Topčagić← R. Mierez

70'

A. MarinOwn goal

75'

Kristijan Lovrić

75'

I. Vidović← E. Grezda

75'

A. Klopp← M. Mina

78'

M. Topčagić↳ A. Grgić

79'

D. Bohar← M. Caktaš

79'

V. Jugović← D. Nejašmić

83'

Mihret TopčagićGoal cancelled

84'

K. Fućak← K. Lovrić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikNK

Overview

33%Possession67%

5Total Shots27

1Corners9

6Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots27

1On Target11

2Off Target5

2Blocked11

2Inside Box17

3Outside Box10

Passing

33%Possession67%

282Total Passes555

183Accurate Passes467

65%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4