Sibenik 1–0 Istra 1961: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Istra 1961

A. Kavelj 17'

3/15/2025

HNL · Round 26Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik44%

×Draw26%

Istra 196130%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchIstra 1961

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.12

Sibenik

1.43

Istra 1961

1.12

Sibenik creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

1.11

creates per match

1.08

1.16

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

Istra 1961

1.08

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

Istra 1961

1.75

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

Istra 1961+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

Istra 1961 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

70%

Sibenik or Istra 1961

74%

Draw or Istra 1961

56%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

21%

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

76%

Sibenik 2+ goals

42%

Sibenik 3+ goals

17%

Istra 1961 1+ goals

67%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

31%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

60%

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + Istra 1961 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Istra 1961 attack 1.08 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sibenik scores more

44%

level

26%

Istra 1961 scores more

30%

Sibenik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

A. Kavelj

Sibenik · M

7.5

Match Events

17'

A. Kavelj↳ E. Duraković

24'

Ivan Santini

46'

I. Božić← L. Kulušić

57'

S. Perić← M. Agyemang

57'

D. Djuric← J. Radošević

62'

Ivan Božić

67'

H. Jaganjac← K. Fućak

67'

G. Gagua← S. Lawal

68'

I. Roca← M. Prekodravac

69'

I. Laća← I. Santini

82'

T. Kolega← E. Duraković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikIstra

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots8

0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.99

4Corners3

8Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots8

1On Target1

5Off Target5

2Blocked2

7Inside Box4

1Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

248Total Passes404

141Accurate Passes307

57%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides9