Istra 1961 3–3 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

Istra 1961

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sibenik

S. Lawal 85'

I. Santini 58' (OG)

B. Lekoueiry 7'

L. Kulušić 90+5'

S. Perić 29'

Š. Gržan 20'

12/14/2024

HNL · Round 17Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Istra 196137%

×Draw28%

Sibenik35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Istra 1961Expected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.16

Istra 1961

1.21

Sibenik

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

1.16

creates per match

1.01

1.30

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Istra 1961

1.16

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

Istra 1961

1.30

Sibenik

1.25

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Istra 1961+0.09on par

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw

65%

Istra 1961 or Sibenik

72%

Draw or Sibenik

63%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

16%

Sibenik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals

70%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

34%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

12%

Sibenik 1+ goals

69%

Sibenik 2+ goals

32%

Sibenik 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

52%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 24 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.16 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sibenik attack 1.01 + Istra 1961 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Istra 1961 scores more

37%

level

28%

Sibenik scores more

35%

Istra 1961 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Marešić

Istra 1961 · M

7.5

Match Events

-5'

Luigi Mišević

3'

Marin Prekodravac

7'

B. Lekoueiry↳ I. Iovu

9'

18'

20'

29'

32'

58'

I. SantiniOwn goal

61'

A. Kadušić← M. Lisica

61'

S. Keller← M. Heister

61'

E. Filet← G. Gagua

67'

Ville Koski

70'

L. Kulušić← I. Santini

73'

Dario Marešić

74'

A. Maurić← D. Marešić

74'

I. Roca← M. Prekodravac

78'

85'

87'

87'

88'

90+1'

90+1'

Advan KadušićCard upgrade

90+5'

L. Kulušić↳ I. Laća

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IstraSibenik

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots13

2.40Expected Goals (xG)1.53

3Corners2

14Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target6

6Off Target2

2Blocked5

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

395Total Passes382

306Accurate Passes296

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1