Sibenik 1–2 HNK Rijeka: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

HNK Rijeka

I. Delić 7'

J. Obregón 87'

M. Frigan 4'

1/28/2023

HNL · Round 19Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik33%

×Draw29%

HNK Rijeka39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchHNK Rijeka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.19

Sibenik

1.07

HNK Rijeka

1.19

HNK Rijeka creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 19 away

1.11

creates per match

1.22

1.16

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

HNK Rijeka

1.22

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

HNK Rijeka

1.03

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

HNK Rijeka-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

HNK Rijeka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

61%

Sibenik or HNK Rijeka

71%

Draw or HNK Rijeka

67%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

13%

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

66%

Sibenik 2+ goals

29%

Sibenik 3+ goals

9%

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

70%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

33%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

46%

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.03 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

HNK Rijeka attack 1.22 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sibenik scores more

33%

level

29%

HNK Rijeka scores more

39%

HNK Rijeka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

V. Hodža

HNK Rijeka · M

7.5

Match Events

4'

5'

7'

12'

12'

Josip KneževićCard upgrade

13'

36'

45'

57'

58'

N. Đorić← D. Čanađija

58'

J. Kvesić← D. Grdić

61'

E. Banda← L. Selahi

62'

D. Jurić← N. Janković

62'

B. Bogojević← A. Grgić

75'

J. Obregón← M. Frigan

87'

J. Obregón↳ V. Hodža

90+3'

A. Hiroš← B. Matić

90+3'

I. Dolček← M. Mina

90+5'

Danilo Veiga← P. Ampem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikHNK

Overview

27%Possession73%

8Total Shots11

3Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots11

5On Target2

2Off Target7

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box5

Passing

27%Possession73%

192Total Passes520

95Accurate Passes425

49%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

HNL: Sibenik 1–2 HNK Rijeka

HNK Rijeka beat Sibenik 2-1 in HNL on January 28, 2023.

Goals: M. Frigan (4'), I. Delić (7'), J. Obregón (87').

HNK Rijeka controlled possession (73%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.

Sibenik vs HNK Rijeka — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNL: Sibenik 1–2 HNK Rijeka