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HNK Rijeka vs Sibenik — HNL 2018

HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sibenik
Sibenik
N. Galešić 81'
K. Andrić 19'
T. Fruk 2'
9/22/2024HNLHNL · Round 7Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

HNK Rijeka52%
×Draw26%
Sibenik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Rijeka
1.55
Sibenik
0.93

HNK Rijeka creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

creates per match

HNK Rijeka
1.85
Sibenik
1.01

allows per match

HNK Rijeka
0.85
Sibenik
1.25

finishing

HNK Rijeka-0.03on par
Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw
77%
HNK Rijeka or Sibenik
74%
Draw or Sibenik
48%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
27%
Sibenik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
79%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
46%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
20%
Sibenik 1+ goals
61%
Sibenik 2+ goals
24%
Sibenik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
70%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 17 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.85 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sibenik attack 1.01 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more
52%
level
26%
Sibenik scores more
23%

HNK Rijeka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. FrukHNK RijekaHNK Rijeka · M
8.2

Match Events

2'
T. Fruk↳ Marco Pašalić
19'
K. Andrić↳ I. Smolčić
42'
Gabriel Rukavina
46'
A. Gojak← G. Rukavina
46'
J. Majić← T. Kolega
60'
Stefan Perić
61'
I. Delić← J. Vasilj
69'
S. Perica← K. Andrić
71'
I. Laća← C. Torres
81'
N. Galešić↳ Marco Pašalić
82'
L. Selahi← D. Petrovič
82'
N. Djouahra← Marco Pašalić
82'
M. Prekodravac← A. Kavelj
82'
L. Kulušić← R. Punčec
84'
S. Ilinković← T. Fruk

Possession

50%HNK

Shots

18HNK

Pass accuracy

50%HNK

Statistics

HNKSibenik
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots6
8Corners3
16Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots6
7On Target2
8Off Target4
3Blocked0
6Inside Box1
12Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
417Total Passes429
351Accurate Passes361
84%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: HNK Rijeka vs Sibenik

HNK Rijeka beat Sibenik 3-0 in HNL on September 22, 2024.

Goals: T. Fruk (2'), K. Andrić (19'), N. Galešić (81').

HNK Rijeka controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion HNK Rijeka in Rijeka.