HNK Rijeka 1–0 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Rijeka

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sibenik

M. Frigan 47'

4/8/2023

HNL · Round 28Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

HNK Rijeka52%

×Draw26%

Sibenik23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK RijekaExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.93

HNK Rijeka

1.55

Sibenik

0.93

HNK Rijeka creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

1.85

creates per match

1.01

0.85

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

HNK Rijeka

1.85

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

HNK Rijeka

0.85

Sibenik

1.25

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

HNK Rijeka-0.03on par

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw

77%

HNK Rijeka or Sibenik

74%

Draw or Sibenik

48%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

27%

Sibenik wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

79%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

46%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

20%

Sibenik 1+ goals

61%

Sibenik 2+ goals

24%

Sibenik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

70%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 17 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.85 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sibenik attack 1.01 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more

52%

level

26%

Sibenik scores more

23%

HNK Rijeka at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Labrović

HNK Rijeka · G

8.3

Match Events

45'

Nikola Đorić

46'

D. Radonjić← K. Špeljak

46'

Iker Pozo← N. Đorić

47'

M. Frigan↳ N. Janković

60'

Marko Soldo

60'

M. Soldo← M. Đira

69'

A. Liber← N. Janković

69'

N. Djouahra← A. Marin

69'

A. Hiroš← D. Čanađija

79'

D. Čop← J. Mesa

80'

A. Grgić← P. Ampem

81'

E. Banda← L. Selahi

85'

I. Smolčić← M. Mitrović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKSibenik

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots11

5Corners4

6Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target4

10Off Target5

1Blocked2

6Inside Box5

9Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

562Total Passes321

478Accurate Passes230

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1