Sibenik 1–0 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HNK Gorica

M. Agyemang 37'

11/24/2024

HNL · Round 14Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik43%

×Draw27%

HNK Gorica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.09

Sibenik

1.37

HNK Gorica

1.09

Sibenik creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

1.11

creates per match

1.03

1.16

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

HNK Gorica

1.63

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

70%

Sibenik or HNK Gorica

73%

Draw or HNK Gorica

57%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

20%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

75%

Sibenik 2+ goals

40%

Sibenik 3+ goals

16%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

66%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

30%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

59%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sibenik scores more

43%

level

27%

HNK Gorica scores more

30%

Sibenik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Agyemang

Sibenik · D

7.7

Match Events

26'

M. Ndockyt← T. Halilović

37'

M. Agyemang↳ J. Majić

46'

M. Gashi← M. Kolar

51'

Ivan BožićGoal cancelled

58'

D. Pavlović← L. Kapulica

75'

Mario Maloča

79'

L. Vrzić← V. Majstorović

83'

Merveil Ndockyt

87'

B. Zdunić← I. Santini

87'

90+4'

90+4'

90+3'

90+3'

90+3'

M. Prekodravac← O. Bakić

90+6'

I. Laća← I. Božić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikHNK

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots11

2Corners3

15Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target2

8Off Target3

3Blocked6

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

314Total Passes404

237Accurate Passes322

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1