HNK Gorica 2–1 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Gorica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sibenik

D. Mikanović 76'

M. Ndockyt 42'

J. Vasilj 90+6'

8/30/2024

HNL · Round 5ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

HNK Gorica38%

×Draw28%

Sibenik34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.14

HNK Gorica

1.21

Sibenik

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

1.01

1.27

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

Sibenik

1.25

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

66%

HNK Gorica or Sibenik

72%

Draw or Sibenik

62%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

16%

Sibenik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

70%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

34%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

12%

Sibenik 1+ goals

68%

Sibenik 2+ goals

32%

Sibenik 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

52%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sibenik attack 1.01 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

38%

level

28%

Sibenik scores more

34%

HNK Gorica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Mikanović

HNK Gorica · M

7.6

Match Events

33'

Mario Maloča

42'

M. Ndockyt↳ D. Štiglec

46'

M. Šlogar← J. Pršir

46'

J. Vasilj← J. Majić

50'

Martin Slogar

63'

I. Baković← M. Prekodravac

73'

Marko Kolar

73'

Ognjen Bakić

73'

D. Pavlović← L. Kapulica

73'

V. Majstorović← M. Šlogar

76'

D. Mikanović↳ M. Kolar

88'

T. Majić← D. Mikanović

88'

I. Laća← T. Kolega

90+7'

Merveil Ndockyt

90+3'

L. Vrzić← M. Kolar

90+6'

J. Vasilj↳ M. Agyemang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKSibenik

Overview

40%Possession60%

5Total Shots13

0.55Expected Goals (xG)0.88

0Corners8

12Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots13

2On Target3

2Off Target5

1Blocked5

4Inside Box9

1Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

329Total Passes480

251Accurate Passes396

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1