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Sibenik vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

Sibenik
Sibenik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
V. Stojanovski 40'
4/2/2022HNLHNL · Round 29Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik43%
×Draw27%
HNK Gorica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibenik
1.37
HNK Gorica
1.09

Sibenik creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sibenik
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.03

allows per match

Sibenik
1.16
HNK Gorica
1.63

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less
HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw
70%
Sibenik or HNK Gorica
73%
Draw or HNK Gorica
57%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+
20%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals
75%
Sibenik 2+ goals
40%
Sibenik 3+ goals
16%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
66%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
30%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)
59%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sibenik scores more
43%
level
27%
HNK Gorica scores more
30%

Sibenik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
A. KalikHNK GoricaHNK Gorica · M
7.9

Match Events

12'
Hrvoje Babec
21'
A. Asanović← K. Bilić
40'
V. Stojanovski↳ A. Kalik
62'
Ivica Vidovic
69'
E. Julardžija← I. Vidović
78'
Y. Delfi← T. Fruk
78'
M. Dieye← V. Stojanovski
81'
D. Skorup← E. Grezda
87'
M. Steenvoorden← C. Keita
90+3'
P. Jug← A. Kalik

Possession

55%Sibenik

Shots

10Sibenik

Pass accuracy

51%Sibenik

Statistics

SibenikHNK
Overview
55%Possession45%
10Total Shots17
7Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots17
0On Target2
6Off Target11
4Blocked4
6Inside Box8
4Outside Box9
Passing
55%Possession45%
451Total Passes379
346Accurate Passes279
77%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sibenik vs HNK Gorica

HNK Gorica beat Sibenik 1-0 in HNL on April 2, 2022.

Goals: V. Stojanovski (40').

Sibenik controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.