Sibenik 2–0 HNK Cibalia: Result & Stats | First NL

Sibenik

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HNK Cibalia

9/18/2023

First NL · Round 6Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sibenik59%

×Draw23%

HNK Cibalia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchHNK Cibalia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.87

Sibenik

1.77

HNK Cibalia

0.87

Sibenik creates 103% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 107 away

2.02

creates per match

1.04

0.70

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Sibenik

2.02

HNK Cibalia

1.04

allows per match

Sibenik

0.70

HNK Cibalia

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sibenik+0.00on par

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

HNK Cibalia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

82%

Sibenik or HNK Cibalia

77%

Draw or HNK Cibalia

41%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

33%

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

83%

Sibenik 2+ goals

53%

Sibenik 3+ goals

26%

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals

58%

HNK Cibalia 2+ goals

22%

HNK Cibalia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

76%

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

HNK Cibalia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 2.02 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.77

HNK Cibalia attack 1.04 + Sibenik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sibenik scores more

59%

level

23%

HNK Cibalia scores more

18%

Sibenik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff