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HNK Cibalia vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
CANC
00:00
Sibenik
Sibenik
4/25/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 26Stadion Cibalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

HNK Cibalia37%
×Draw28%
Sibenik35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Cibalia
1.21
Sibenik
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 40 away

creates per match

HNK Cibalia
1.56
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

HNK Cibalia
1.03
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Cibalia ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

HNK Cibalia or draw
65%
HNK Cibalia or Sibenik
72%
Draw or Sibenik
63%

Winning margin

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
16%
Sibenik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
70%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
34%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
12%
Sibenik 1+ goals
68%
Sibenik 2+ goals
32%
Sibenik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
52%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Cibalia at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 108 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Cibalia attack 1.56 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sibenik attack 1.27 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

HNK Cibalia scores more
37%
level
28%
Sibenik scores more
35%

HNK Cibalia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "HNK Cibalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNK Cibalia vs Sibenik — Match Preview

HNK Cibalia face Sibenik on April 25, 2020 in this First NL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

HNK Cibalia host Sibenik at Stadion Cibalia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.