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Sibenik vs Dugopolje — First NL 2018

Sibenik
Sibenik
CANC
15:30
Dugopolje
Dugopolje
5/16/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 30Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sibenik60%
×Draw23%
Dugopolje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibenik
1.81
Dugopolje
0.86

Sibenik creates 110% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 119 away

creates per match

Sibenik
2.02
Dugopolje
1.03

allows per match

Sibenik
0.70
Dugopolje
1.59

finishing

Sibenik+0.00on par
Dugopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

Dugopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw
82%
Sibenik or Dugopolje
77%
Draw or Dugopolje
40%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+
34%
Dugopolje wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals
84%
Sibenik 2+ goals
54%
Sibenik 3+ goals
27%
Dugopolje 1+ goals
58%
Dugopolje 2+ goals
21%
Dugopolje 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)
77%
Dugopolje (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Dugopolje away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.59 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 2.02 + Dugopolje defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dugopolje attack 1.03 + Sibenik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sibenik scores more
60%
level
23%
Dugopolje scores more
18%

Sibenik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sibenik host Dugopolje

May 16, 2020: Sibenik take on Dugopolje in First NL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sibenik host Dugopolje at Stadion Šubićevac.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.