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Dugopolje vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Dugopolje
Dugopolje
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sibenik
Sibenik
2/24/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 19Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Dugopolje34%
×Draw29%
Sibenik37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugopolje
1.10
Sibenik
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 40 away

creates per match

Dugopolje
1.36
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

Dugopolje
1.05
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw
63%
Dugopolje or Sibenik
71%
Draw or Sibenik
66%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+
14%
Sibenik wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals
67%
Dugopolje 2+ goals
30%
Dugopolje 3+ goals
10%
Sibenik 1+ goals
69%
Sibenik 2+ goals
32%
Sibenik 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)
48%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dugopolje scores more
34%
level
29%
Sibenik scores more
37%

Sibenik at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Dugopolje 0–0 Sibenik

Dugopolje and Sibenik drew 0-0 in First NL on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi in Dugopolje.