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Sibenik vs Dubrava Zagreb — First NL 2018

Sibenik
Sibenik
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
10/14/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 10Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sibenik57%
×Draw24%
Dubrava Zagreb19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sibenik
1.69
Dubrava Zagreb
0.84

Sibenik creates 101% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 106 away

creates per match

Sibenik
2.02
Dubrava Zagreb
0.98

allows per match

Sibenik
0.70
Dubrava Zagreb
1.36

finishing

Sibenik+0.00on par
Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw
81%
Sibenik or Dubrava Zagreb
76%
Draw or Dubrava Zagreb
43%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+
32%
Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals
82%
Sibenik 2+ goals
50%
Sibenik 3+ goals
24%
Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
57%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
21%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)
76%
Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 2.02 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + Sibenik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sibenik scores more
57%
level
24%
Dubrava Zagreb scores more
19%

Sibenik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sibenik vs Dubrava Zagreb

Sibenik beat Dubrava Zagreb 4-1 in First NL on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Šubićevac in Šibenik.