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Dubrava Zagreb vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sibenik
Sibenik
3/9/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 21Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Dubrava Zagreb33%
×Draw28%
Sibenik39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubrava Zagreb
1.11
Sibenik
1.23

Sibenik creates 11% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 40 away

creates per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.37
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.19
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubrava Zagreb ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dubrava Zagreb or draw
61%
Dubrava Zagreb or Sibenik
72%
Draw or Sibenik
67%

Winning margin

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
13%
Sibenik wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
67%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
30%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
10%
Sibenik 1+ goals
71%
Sibenik 2+ goals
35%
Sibenik 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
46%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubrava Zagreb at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubrava Zagreb attack 1.37 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dubrava Zagreb scores more
33%
level
28%
Sibenik scores more
39%

Sibenik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Dubrava Zagreb 0–3 Sibenik

Sibenik beat Dubrava Zagreb 3-0 in First NL on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić in Zagreb.