Sibenik 1–2 Dinamo Zagreb: Result & Stats | HNL

Sibenik

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb

M. Mina 37'

B. Petković 68' (pen)

L. Ivanušec 35'

8/28/2022

HNL · Round 7Stadion Šubićevac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sibenik22%

×Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SibenikExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.58

Sibenik

0.91

Dinamo Zagreb

1.58

Dinamo Zagreb creates 74% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

1.11

creates per match

2.01

1.16

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Sibenik

1.11

Dinamo Zagreb

2.01

allows per match

Sibenik

1.16

Dinamo Zagreb

0.71

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Sibenik-0.11scores less

Dinamo Zagreb+0.42scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sibenik ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sibenik or draw

47%

Sibenik or Dinamo Zagreb

75%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb

78%

Winning margin

Sibenik wins by 2+

7%

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Sibenik 1+ goals

60%

Sibenik 2+ goals

23%

Sibenik 3+ goals

6%

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

47%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sibenik (draw refunded)

29%

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sibenik at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sibenik attack 1.11 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.01 + Sibenik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sibenik scores more

22%

level

25%

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

53%

Dinamo Zagreb at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Ivanušec

Dinamo Zagreb · M

7.9

Match Events

34'

E. Dilaver← B. Šutalo

35'

L. Ivanušec↳ M. Baturina

37'

42'

45'

46'

48'

63'

B. Petković← J. Drmic

63'

L. Menalo← A. Marin

68'

B. PetkovićPenalty

71'

Ivan Delić

71'

K. Špeljak← I. Vidović

71'

L. Kreković← M. Canadi

79'

N. Rak← B. Matić

79'

D. Skorup← P. Salomon

88'

Dino Skorup

89'

R. Ljubičić← L. Ivanušec

90+3'

N. Koprivnik← H. Arai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SibenikDinamo

Overview

31%Possession69%

5Total Shots11

6Corners1

17Fouls10

Shots

5Total Shots11

2On Target4

1Off Target5

2Blocked2

3Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

31%Possession69%

241Total Passes575

155Accurate Passes495

64%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5