Dinamo Zagreb 4–0 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sibenik

P. Bočkaj 68'

M. Baturina 55'

L. Ivanušec 54'

B. Petković 31'

5/14/2023

HNL · Round 34Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb58%

×Draw23%

Sibenik18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.86

Dinamo Zagreb

1.75

Sibenik

0.86

Dinamo Zagreb creates 103% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

2.26

creates per match

1.01

0.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.26

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.71

Sibenik

1.25

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.67scores more

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

82%

Dinamo Zagreb or Sibenik

77%

Draw or Sibenik

42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

33%

Sibenik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

52%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

25%

Sibenik 1+ goals

58%

Sibenik 2+ goals

21%

Sibenik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

76%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.26 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sibenik attack 1.01 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

58%

level

23%

Sibenik scores more

18%

Dinamo Zagreb at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Mišić

Dinamo Zagreb · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

B. Petković↳ J. Mišić

54'

L. Ivanušec↳ R. Ljubičić

55'

M. Baturina↳ R. Ljubičić

62'

M. Soldo← K. Špeljak

62'

J. Knežević← I. Dolček

64'

G. Rukavina← F. Topić

64'

P. Bočkaj← R. Ljubičić

68'

P. Bočkaj↳ M. Baturina

74'

J. Drmić← B. Petković

74'

L. Menalo← L. Ivanušec

81'

M. Živković← S. Ristovski

88'

D. Skorup← A. Hiroš

89'

J. Kvesić← D. Čanađija

89'

J. Baturina← H. Arai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoSibenik

Overview

71%Possession29%

11Total Shots7

4Corners2

4Fouls5

Shots

11Total Shots7

5On Target1

4Off Target4

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box0

Passing

71%Possession29%

826Total Passes335

761Accurate Passes270

92%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls5

4Offsides0