Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Sibenik: Result & Stats | HNL

Dinamo Zagreb

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sibenik

M. Baturina 78'

A. Hoxha 74'

S. Mmaee 38'

2/7/2025

HNL · Round 21Stadion Maksimir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Dinamo Zagreb58%

×Draw23%

Sibenik18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo ZagrebExpected goals in this matchSibenik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.86

Dinamo Zagreb

1.75

Sibenik

0.86

Dinamo Zagreb creates 103% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

2.26

creates per match

1.01

0.71

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Dinamo Zagreb

2.26

Sibenik

1.01

allows per match

Dinamo Zagreb

0.71

Sibenik

1.25

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Dinamo Zagreb+0.67scores more

Sibenik+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Zagreb ↓

Sibenik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Zagreb or draw

82%

Dinamo Zagreb or Sibenik

77%

Draw or Sibenik

42%

Winning margin

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

33%

Sibenik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

83%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

52%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

25%

Sibenik 1+ goals

58%

Sibenik 2+ goals

21%

Sibenik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

76%

Sibenik (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Zagreb at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.71 · 15 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.26 + Sibenik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sibenik attack 1.01 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

58%

level

23%

Sibenik scores more

18%

Dinamo Zagreb at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Hoxha

Dinamo Zagreb · F

8.3

Match Events

38'

S. Mmaee↳ L. Stojković

43'

Ronaël Pierre-Gabriel

46'

O. Bakić← A. Kavelj

51'

Juan Córdoba

53'

M. Prekodravac← B. Zdunić

59'

N. Mbuku← J. Córdoba

59'

S. Moharrami← S. Ristovski

59'

A. Hoxha← M. Pjaca

68'

L. Kulušić← I. Laća

74'

A. Hoxha

75'

Arber HoxhaGoal confirmed

78'

M. Baturina↳ A. Hoxha

79'

I. Roca← Iker Pozo

79'

J. Majić← E. Duraković

81'

S. Kulenović← M. Baturina

81'

L. Kačavenda← L. Stojković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DinamoSibenik

Overview

68%Possession32%

12Total Shots5

2Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots5

3On Target1

5Off Target3

4Blocked1

8Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

635Total Passes296

565Accurate Passes212

89%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0

HNL: Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Sibenik

Dinamo Zagreb beat Sibenik 3-0 in HNL on February 7, 2025.

Goals: S. Mmaee (38'), A. Hoxha (74'), M. Baturina (78').

Dinamo Zagreb controlled possession (68%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Sibenik — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNL: Dinamo Zagreb 3–0 Sibenik