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Šiauliai vs Kupiškis — 1 Lyga 2026

Šiauliai
Šiauliai
FT
2 – 3
Kupiškis
Kupiškis
5/18/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 9Šiaulių m. savivaldybes stadionas (Šiauliai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Šiauliai52%
×Draw20%
Kupiškis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šiauliai
2.34
Kupiškis
1.70

Šiauliai creates 38% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 14 away

creates per match

Šiauliai
2.69
Kupiškis
2.21

allows per match

Šiauliai
1.19
Kupiškis
2.00

finishing

Šiauliai+0.00on par
Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šiauliai ↓

Kupiškis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Šiauliai or draw
72%
Šiauliai or Kupiškis
80%
Draw or Kupiškis
48%

Winning margin

Šiauliai wins by 2+
32%
Kupiškis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Šiauliai 1+ goals
90%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
67%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
41%
Kupiškis 1+ goals
82%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
51%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Šiauliai (draw refunded)
65%
Kupiškis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šiauliai at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šiauliai attack 2.69 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.34

Kupiškis attack 2.21 + Šiauliai defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Šiauliai scores more
52%
level
20%
Kupiškis scores more
28%

Šiauliai at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Šiauliai 2–3 Kupiškis

Kupiškis beat Šiauliai 3-2 in 1 Lyga on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Šiaulių m. savivaldybes stadionas (Šiauliai).