Kupiškis 2–3 Šiauliai: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Kupiškis

FT

2 – 3

Šiauliai

9/14/2019

1 Lyga · Round 24Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kupiškis22%

×Draw21%

Šiauliai57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KupiškisExpected goals in this matchŠiauliai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.09

Kupiškis

1.23

Šiauliai

2.09

Šiauliai creates 70% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

1.29

creates per match

2.18

2.00

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Kupiškis

1.29

Šiauliai

2.18

allows per match

Kupiškis

2.00

Šiauliai

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kupiškis+0.00on par

Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kupiškis ↓

Šiauliai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kupiškis or draw

43%

Kupiškis or Šiauliai

79%

Draw or Šiauliai

78%

Winning margin

Kupiškis wins by 2+

9%

Šiauliai wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Kupiškis 1+ goals

71%

Kupiškis 2+ goals

35%

Kupiškis 3+ goals

13%

Šiauliai 1+ goals

88%

Šiauliai 2+ goals

62%

Šiauliai 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Kupiškis (draw refunded)

28%

Šiauliai (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kupiškis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kupiškis attack 1.29 + Šiauliai defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Šiauliai attack 2.18 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kupiškis scores more

22%

level

21%

Šiauliai scores more

57%

Šiauliai at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff