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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Star Starachowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg50%
×Draw24%
Star Starachowice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.76
Star Starachowice
1.22

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Star Starachowice
1.41

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Star Starachowice
1.27

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
73%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Star Starachowice
76%
Draw or Star Starachowice
50%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
27%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
83%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
52%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
26%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
70%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
34%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
65%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.76

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
50%
level
24%
Star Starachowice scores more
27%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1–0 Star Starachowice

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Star Starachowice 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.