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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
8/13/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 6Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg40%
×Draw25%
Radunia Stężyca35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.48
Radunia Stężyca
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.18
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.47
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
65%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Radunia Stężyca
75%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
60%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
19%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
77%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
43%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
19%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
74%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
39%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
54%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.18 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
40%
level
25%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
35%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 0–2 Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2-0 in II Liga - East on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.