Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Radunia Stężyca vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
3/18/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 23Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Radunia Stężyca51%
×Draw24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.73
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.14

Radunia Stężyca creates 52% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.00

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.88

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
75%
Radunia Stężyca or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
76%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
49%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
28%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
82%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
52%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
25%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
68%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
32%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
67%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.00 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
51%
level
24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
25%

Radunia Stężyca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Radunia Stężyca 4–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Radunia Stężyca beat Siarka Tarnobrzeg 4-0 in II Liga - East on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.