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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Podhale Nowy Targ — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
11/11/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg53%
×Draw23%
Podhale Nowy Targ25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.87
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.21

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 55% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 86 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.38

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Podhale Nowy Targ
1.49

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
75%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Podhale Nowy Targ
77%
Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ
47%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
30%
Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
85%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
56%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
29%
Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
70%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
34%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
68%
Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.87

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
53%
level
23%
Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–0 Podhale Nowy Targ

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Podhale Nowy Targ 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.